The current revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have misshaped essential oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their professions), a slow-burning atomic explosion on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the opportunities of discovering brand-new reserves have the possible to throw federal governments' long-term preparation into chaos.

Whatever the truth, increasing long term worldwide demands seem specific to outstrip production in the next decade, specifically provided the high and rising expenses of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, ingredients and replacements such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising prices drive this innovation to the leading edge, one of the wealthiest possible production locations has actually been completely neglected by financiers already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to end up being a significant player in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom because of record-high energy costs, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising manufacturer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually mostly prevented their capability to capitalize increasing worldwide energy needs already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mostly reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, but their heightened need to produce winter electrical energy has actually resulted in autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn significantly affecting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these three downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually become a major manufacturer of wheat. Based on my conversations with Central Asian government authorities, offered the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have fantastic appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser degree Astana for those durable investors ready to bank on the future, particularly as a plant native to the area has actually currently proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies currently investigating how to produce it in industrial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month examination of camelina's operational efficiency ability and potential commercial practicality.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another benefit of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's debris can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially great animals feed candidate that is just now gaining acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina might be an ideal low-input crop suitable for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard household, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a brand-new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence suggests it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least three centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a wide variety of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil material differing between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been figured out to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can create problems in germination to attain an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's potential could allow Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the nation's efforts at agrarian reform since accomplishing independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise ordered by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually become self-sufficient in cotton